← Atelier Tabletop Brewspace Phantom Monarchs Store Championship
Fire Firebloom BurnTier 2
at Atelier Tabletop Brewspace Phantom Monarchs Store Championship
Pilot Skill · average
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.0% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 56.7% | +5.0 |
| Water Genbu | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 10.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 57.5% | +7.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aetherwing | 5.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.5% | -13.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.9% | -8.2 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 5.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.5% | -12.0 |
| Water Fractal | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Beast | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Wind Vanitas | 2.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.1% | -11.0 |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 2.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.1% | +14.6 |
| Wind Allies | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Diana | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 2 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 1 mirror match, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 1 mirror is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 1 mirror we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 23 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 23 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashwick Cremator | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Vermilion Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fragmented Spirit of Fire | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Reduce to Ash | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Spirit of Fire | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Ignis Deus | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Stolen Chance | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Embercrypt Burn | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Enfeebling Orb | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Intensified Pyre | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Obscured Offering | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Demolition | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Necklace of Foresight | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Creative Shock | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Raze the Land | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fanatical Devotee | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -1.00 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Acolyte of Cultivation | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Topsy Decree | +1.00 | 1 | 0 | 0 |